Comparison of 5-year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Obese and Non-Obese Adult Population: The YaHs Cohort

Parisa Peigan; Masoud Mirzaei; Pedro Marques-Vidal; Hossein Fallahzadeh; Alexander Kraemer; Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi

doi:10.18502/jnfs.v8i4.14004

Parisa Peigan Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran;
Masoud Mirzaei Yazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-communicable diseases research institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
Pedro Marques-Vidal Department of Internal Medicine, BH10-642, Rue du Bugnon 46, CH-1011 Lausanne, Switzerland;
Hossein Fallahzadeh Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
Alexander Kraemer Department of Health Sciences, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
Mohammadtaghi Sarebanhassanabadi Yazd Cardiovascular Research Center, Non-communicable diseases research institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/jnfs.v8i4.14004

Keywords: Diabetes; Obesity; Incidence; Cohort study

Abstract

Background: Obesity is an important predictor of diabetes. Defining the risk of diabetes among obese subjects is important for preventive health strategies. This study aims to compare the 5-year incidence of diabetes in obese and non-obese adult participants aged 20-70 years in a large population sample of central Iran. Methods: In this prospective study, 9964 people aged 20-70 years were selected between 2014 and 2015 using multi-stage cluster sampling from Yazd Greater Area, Iran. Participants with diabetes were excluded and non-diabetic individuals were evaluated for incident diabetes after a five-year follow-up. Logistic regression was used to find the association between obesity and 5-year incidence of diabetes in bivariate, and multivariate adjusted models for age, sex, physical activity, medical history, marital status, smoking, and education. Results: Out of the initial 9964 participants, 1383 (14%) were excluded due to prevalence of diabetes. The remaining 8413 (86.0%) participants were re-examined in 2019-2020. After five years of follow up, diabetes occurred in 6.6% (n=556) of the participants. The incidence of diabetes in obese men and women was 10.4% (n=109) and 9.9% (n=264), respectively; however, it was 4.5% (n=143) and 2.8% (n=40) in their non-obese counterparts (P<0.01). After multivariate analysis, obesity was associated with a higher likelihood of diabetes in men (OR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.33-2.35), women (OR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.55-3.21), and overall (OR=1.99, 95%CI: 1.60-2.48). Similar findings were obtained in participants aged under and over 60 years (P<0.05). Conclusion: There was a positive association between obesity and 5-year incidence of diabetes in an Iranian adult population. Interventions are required to change lifestyle in the adult population especially in younger participants to prevent obesity and diabetes.