Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change has put the planet earth on high risk due to flash, riverine flooding and droughts. Unprecedented frequent flooding, hurricanes, droughts and heavy snowfalls can be witnessed in the past few decades. Now no country can declare itself safe from the negative impacts of changing climate. To reduce the risk of potential damages, vulnerability and risk assessment can give a clear picture of a particular region regarding a specific hazard. It will help the administration to address those areas which are highly at risk due to a certain hazard so as to minimize collateral damages in future.

In Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa, Nowshera was one of the most affected districts. It has destroyed building stock, livestock and crops in most parts of the district. To minimize these losses in future, this research has been carried out to assess the current condition of building stock in Nowshera Cantt and Nowshera City area. This research explores in detail the building stock vulnerability and associated risk. This research has found that the flood reoccurrence time period is 7 years for zone 1and 7. While other zones 2, 3,4,5,6,8 and 9 have 81 years of reoccurrence time period. Based on the physical vulnerability, this research found that there are five types of buildings in the study area. Vulnerability of Type 1 to 5 are varying  from strong to weak according to its  structures having RCC roof, strong walls, plain concrete / tiles floor. Flood risk map has been produced on the basis of flood frequency and typology of high frequency structures in that particular area. The research explicitly shows different areas in risk map according to the level of risk i.e. from low to high risk zones.  This research has found that binding material is the major factor in structural damages in the study area.