Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Marriage and Divorce Trends in Iran During 2011–2020

Abstract

Background and Objectives: The decline in marriage and the rise in divorce mirroring global trends have emerged as critical socio-demographic challenges. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of marriage and divorce across Iran from 2011 to 2020 using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques.

Methods: The study was ecological in design. Marriage and divorce data were obtained from the National Organization for Civil Registration, and population data were extracted from the Statistical Center of Iran. Indicators were standardized for the population aged ten years and over. Spatial analyses, including zoning and the Getis-Ord Gi* hot spot test, were performed using ArcGIS version 10.8 and SPSS version 26.

Results: The marriage rate declined from 13.74 per 10,000 population in 2011 to 8 in 2020, with sharper reductions in metropolitan and industrial provinces such as Tehran, Alborz, and Isfahan. In contrast, provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan exhibited relatively higher rates. Meanwhile, the divorce rate increased from 2.24 per 10,000 in 2011 to 2.63 in 2020, with values exceeding the national average in Tehran, Alborz, and the northern provinces. Hotspot analysis revealed that urban-industrial areas represented divorce hotspots and marriage cold spots.

Conclusion: The findings highlight a significant decline in marriage and a concurrent rise in divorce across Iran during 2011 to 2020, with clear regional disparities. These results underscore the urgent need for region-specific policies, counseling programs, and social support interventions to strengthen family stability.