Estimation of the Incidence of Abortion in Women of Reproductive Age 18-54 in Kerman City in 2022-2023

Shima Shadkam  Farrokhi; Amir  Nekoui; Saeedeh Haji  Maghsoudi; Hamid  Sharifi; Aliakbar  Haghdoost

doi:10.18502/ijre.v21i2.19909

Shima Shadkam Farrokhi Master of Science in Epidemiology, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Amir Nekoui PhD Student of Epidemiology, Social Determinants on Oral Health Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Saeedeh Haji Maghsoudi PhD in Biostatistics, Assistant Professor, Health Modeling Research Center Health Futures Research Institute Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Hamid Sharifi PhD in Epidemiology, Professor, HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, AND WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Aliakbar Haghdoost PhD in Epidemiology, Professor of Epidemiology, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijre.v21i2.19909

Keywords: Induced abortion, Spontaneous abortion, Kerman, Iran, Network scale-up, Direct estimation

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Abortion is a significant health and social issue in Iran, which affects women's physical and mental health, as well as population growth rates. This study evaluated and compared direct and indirect estimates of abortion incidence and its associated factors among women of reproductive age in Kerman, Iran.

Methods: This cross-sectional study estimated the incidence of abortion using direct and indirect methods (Proxy network Scale-Up Method). In the direct method, 471 women aged 18-54 were interviewed about their personal experiences with abortion. In the indirect method, 450 women provided information about abortions within their close social networks. The number of abortions reported by each individual was divided by the corresponding person-time to estimate the incidence rate using the direct method. The number of abortions reported within the social network was divided by the size of each individual’s close network population for the indirect abortion incidence estimation.

Results: The annual abortion incidence is estimated indirectly at 62 per 1,000 women of reproductive age (95% CI = 52, 73), with 57% attributed to spontaneous abortion and 43% to induced abortion. Factors such as more children, higher socioeconomic status, and an educated spouse were associated with increased abortion rates.

Conclusion: The occurrence of abortion in Kerman, as in the rest of the country, was a serious health issue. The underlying and root causes should be addressed to manage it more effectively. And it should be noted, more than half of these abortions are spontaneous, meaning that there are inherent limitations in reducing the number of abortions even with optimal management.