Evaluating Measles Incidence Rates Using Machine Learning and Time Series Methods in the Center of Iran, 1997-2020

Javad  Nazari; Parnia-Sadat  Fathi; Nahid  Sharahi; Majid  Taheri; Payam  Amini; Amir  Almasi-Hashiani

doi:10.18502/ijph.v51i4.9252

Javad Nazari Department of Pediatric, School of Medicine, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
Parnia-Sadat Fathi Student Research Committee, School of Medicine, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
Nahid Sharahi Health Department, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
Majid Taheri Medical Ethics and Law Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Payam Amini Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Amir Almasi-Hashiani Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v51i4.9252

Keywords: Measles; Machine learning; Time series; Infection

Abstract

Background: Measles is a feverish condition labeled among the most infectious viral illnesses in the globe. Despite the presence of a secure, accessible, affordable and efficient vaccine, measles continues to be a worldwide concern.

Methods: This epidemiologic study used machine learning and time series methods to assess factors that placed people at a higher risk of measles. The study contained the measles incidence in Markazi Province, the center of Iran, from Apr 1997 to Feb 2020. In addition to machine learning, zero-inflated negative binomial regression for time series was utilized to assess development of measles over time.

Results: The incidence of measles was 14.5% over the recent 24 years and a constant trend of almost zero cases were observed from 2002 to 2020. The order of independent variable importance were recent years, age, vaccination, rhinorrhea, male sex, contact with measles patients, cough, conjunctivitis, ethnic, and fever. Only 7 new cases were forecasted for the next two years. Bagging and random forest were the most accurate classification methods.

Conclusion: Even if the numbers of new cases were almost zero during recent years, age and contact were responsible for non-occurrence of measles. October and May are prone to have new cases for 2021 and 2022.