Exploration of Epidemiological Characteristics for the Occurrence of Stroke in One Chronic Demonstration Area of Zhejiang Province in China: A Retrospective Study from 2009-2015

Abstract

Background: Fenghua County, located on the eastern coast of Zhejiang Province, showed a higher stroke incidence than other counties of Ningbo Municipality while the potential epidemiology pattern was not explored. Methods: The study data of first-ever stroke cases were collected from the Internet-based Comprehensive Chronic Disease Surveillance System (ICDSS) in Zhejiang Province. Spatio-temporal analysis and time series model were explored and constructed to identify the epidemiological characteristics in local. Results: A total of 10215 first-ever strokes were reported in Fenghua County from 2009 to 2015, including 8292 ischemic strokes (81.18%), 1839 hemorrhagic strokes (18.00%), and 84 unclassifiable strokes (0.82%). According to occupational distribution, peasants had the highest proportion (82.59%). Also, ischemic stroke was the main stroke subtype with a proportion of 81.18%. Space-time scan analysis, among 26 residential communities in Fenghua County from the period of 2009-2015, presented that only one most likely cluster was identified in 2009 with the relative risk (RR) value of 1.15. Besides, the ARIMA (0,1,2) model was determined as the optimal one to predict the trend of stroke. Conclusion: Under the trend of an aging population, the stroke incidence in Fenghua County was increased with the ischemic stroke as the main subtype. Peasant groups and persons in middle age and above were the targeted objects for the control and prevention of stroke. Besides, specific interventions, like hypertension health management and health education, should be strengthened to reduce the incidence of stroke effectively in the future.