Global Temporal Trends in Prevalence of Hearing Loss in Young Adults Aged 15-39 Years and Projections to 2040

Xin  Gong; Yongqi   Dong; Yinxia  Xu; Chao  Yuan; Xiaoling  Zhang; Shiyong  Xiao; Dan  Wu; Deping  Wang

doi:10.18502/ijph.v54i12.20823

Xin Gong Department of Otolaryngology, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Yongqi Dong Department of Gastroenterology, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Yinxia Xu Children Health Care Center, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Chao Yuan Department of Otolaryngology, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Xiaoling Zhang Department of Otolaryngology, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Shiyong Xiao Department of Clinical Nutrition, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Dan Wu Department of Dermatology, Wushan County People’s Hospital of Chongqing, Chongqing, 404700, China
Deping Wang Department of Otolaryngology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v54i12.20823

Keywords: Hearing loss; Young adults; Age-period-cohort analysis; Temporal trends; Global burden of disease

Abstract

Background: Hearing loss (HL) constitutes a significant hazard to the health and social welfare, yet there is a lack of data on its burden in young adults (YAs) aged 15-39 yr. This study aimed to delineate the global temporal trends and predict the future burden of HL in YAs.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021, we analyzed the prevalent cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) of HL in YAs by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index(SDI). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess trends, while the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected future epidemiological trajectories.

Results: Globally, HL prevalent cases in YAs increased from 171.77 million (95% CI: 145.95–200.16) in 1992 to 256.16 million (95% CI: 222.49–293.87) in 2021. The ASPR rose from 7862.80 to 8474.66 per 100,000 over this period, with males consistently showing higher rates than females. APC analysis revealed age-dependent increases in hearing loss risk, adverse period effects in recent years (2012–2021), and a peak relative risk in the 1997–2006 birth cohort. The BAPC model projects 291.37 million (95% CI: 182.25–400.49) prevalent cases by 2040.

Conclusion: The global burden of HL in YAs is rising, particularly since the relative risk of HL has continued to grow during the last 10 years, highlighting the need for further research and intervention.