Trends and Projections of Mortality Attributed to Occupational Neoplasms and Occupational Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer in the World, G7 Countries and Turkey

Elif Nur  Yıldırım-Ozturk; Mustafa  Ozturk

doi:10.18502/ijph.v53i11.16950

Elif Nur Yıldırım-Ozturk Public Health Department Epidemiology Section, Faculty of Medicine, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey
Mustafa Ozturk Emergency Service, Ankara Pursaklar State Hospital, Ankara, Turkey

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v53i11.16950

Keywords: Occupational neoplasm; Occupational lung cancer; Trend; Projection

Abstract

Background: The most important and remarkable aspect of occupational neoplasms is that they are preventable. We aimed to examine the trends and projections of mortality rates attributed to occupational neoplasms (MAON) and occupational tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (MAOLCa) in the world, G7 countries, and Turkey from 1990 to 2040.

Methods: The study was ecological one. Data for the study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Foresight Visualization. For the study, time points were set every five years. For each time point, the age-standardized MAON, MAOLCa, and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were recorded. Rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: Globally, MAON was projected to decrease from 3.81% in 1990 to 2.83% in 2040. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the joint year for the world was 2020. In Germany, the US, the UK, Italy, Canada and Turkey, the trend for MAON showed a decrease, similar to the global trend. However, MAON was stable in France and increased in Japan. Globally, MAOLCa was expected to decline gradually from 19.44% to 16.82% from 1990 to 2040. In the US, France and Turkey, the trend for MAOLca decreased, similar to the global trend. However, it was stable in the UK, Italy, and Canada and increased in Germany and Japan.

Conclusion: MAON tended to decrease worldwide and in the six countries, except France and Japan. MAOLCa tends to decrease worldwide, in the US, France, and Turkey, increase in Germany and Japan, and remain stable in the UK, Italy, and Canada.