Analysis and Forecast of Birth Related Indicators in Selected Balkan and Eastern European Countries

Milos  Stepovic; Berislav  Vekic; Sanja  Kocic; Svetlana  Radevic; Viktorija  Dragojevic Simic; Snezana  Radovanovic; Radisa  Vojinovic; Nemanja  Rancic

doi:10.18502/ijph.v53i3.15144

Milos Stepovic Department of Anatomy, Faculty of Medical Science, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Berislav Vekic Clinic for Surgery, University Hospital Center “Dr. Dragisa Misovic”, Belgrade, Serbia
Sanja Kocic Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Svetlana Radevic Department of Social medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Viktorija Dragojevic Simic Centre for Clinical Pharmacology, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade, Serbia
Snezana Radovanovic Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Radisa Vojinovic Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Nemanja Rancic Centre for Clinical Pharmacology, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade, Serbia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v53i3.15144

Keywords: Health indicators; Birth indicators; Balkan countries; South Eastern countries; Forecast

Abstract

Background: Health indicators are often used for a variety of purposes, including program management, resource allocation, monitoring of country progress, performance-based payment, and global reporting. Real progress in health towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goals and other national health priorities is vitally dependent on stronger health systems. We aimed to analyse the progress of “birth related indicators” of selected countries of Balkan and Eastern Europe and to forecast their values in the future.

Methods: This research report article represents a descriptive data analysis of selected health indicators, extracted from European Health for All database (HFA-DB) and EuroStat. Indicators of interest were analysed for 17 countries in observational period from 1990 to 2019. The data were analysed using a linear trend estimate and median operation and interquartile range 25th–75th percentile were used for better comparison of each country. Forecasting analysis to year 2025 was performed by combining Excel analysis and SPSS program.

Results: Number of all live births to mothers aged under 20 is decreasing in almost all examined countries, while live births to mother over 35 is mostly increasing. Total fertility rate is also mainly decreasing in almost all countries of interest for our investigation, as well as the crude birth rate. Estimated infant mortality per 1000 live births is decreasing in all observed countries.

Conclusion: Population aging is becoming more pronounced, while current birth-related indicators have negative tendencies; this problem will obviously continue over time.