Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Main Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran

Nasrollah  Saberi; Ahmad  Raeisi; Mohammad Amin  Gorouhi; Hassan  Vatandoost; Faramarz  Bozorg Omid; Ahmad Ali  Hanafi-Bojd

doi:10.18502/ijph.v52i5.12724

Nasrollah Saberi Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Ahmad Raeisi Department of Medical Parasitology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Mohammad Amin Gorouhi Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Hassan Vatandoost Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Faramarz Bozorg Omid Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd Department of Vector Biology & Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v52i5.12724

Keywords: Climate change; Malaria; Anopheles, Ecological niche modeling

Abstract

Background: Although malaria is endemic in some areas of southeastern Iran, following the successful national malaria elimination plan (NMEP), the local transmission area has been shrunk. This study was aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of main vectors.

Methods: All documents related to research investigations conducted in Kerman Province on malaria vectors published during 2000–2019 were retrieved from scientific databases. Spatial distributions of the main vectors were mapped and modeled using MaxEnt ecological model. The future environmental suitability for main vectors was determined under three climate changes scenarios in the 2030s.

Results: Five malaria vectors are present in Kerman Province. The best ecological niches for these vectors are located in the southern regions of the province under the current climatic condition as well as different climate change scenarios in the 2030s.

Conclusion: Climate change in 2030 will not have a significant impact on the distribution of malaria vectors in the region. Entomological monitoring is advised to update the spatial database of Anopheles vectors of malaria in this malaria receptive region.