Evaluation of Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in the Karaganda Region of Kazakhstan

Nurbek  Igissinov; Asem  Toguzbayeva; Zhansaya  Telmanova; Aida  Baibusunova; Almazhan  Abdykalikova; Gulnur  Igissinova; Zarina  Bilyalova; Olzhas Akyshev; Serikbay  Orazbayev; Zhanar  Kozhakhmetova; Zhanerke  Azhetova; Gaukhar  Nurtazinova; Yerlan  Kuandykov

doi:10.18502/ijph.v51i10.10989

Nurbek Igissinov Department of Surgical Diseases, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Asem Toguzbayeva Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Zhansaya Telmanova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Aida Baibusunova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Almazhan Abdykalikova Department of Oncology, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Gulnur Igissinova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Zarina Bilyalova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Olzhas Akyshev Department of Surgical Diseases, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Serikbay Orazbayev Department of Surgical Diseases, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Zhanar Kozhakhmetova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Zhanerke Azhetova Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Gaukhar Nurtazinova Department of Surgical Diseases, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Yerlan Kuandykov Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v51i10.10989

Keywords: Breast cancer; Incidence; Trends; Component analysis

Abstract

Background: The study conducted a component analysis of the dynamics of the incidence of breast cancer (BC) in Karaganda region.

Methods: Primary data were for registered patients with BC (ICD 10–C50) in Kazakhstan, Karaganda region the period of 2009-2018. Evaluation of changes in BC incidence in the population of Karaganda was performed using component analysis according to the methodological recommendations.

Results: Overall, 4,391 new cases of BC and 1,202 deaths were recorded. The incidence rate increased from 44.4 (2009) to 72.7 in 2018 and the overall growth was 28.37 per 100,000 population of female, including due to the age structure – ∑Δ_A=3.13, due to the risk of acquiring illness – ∑Δ_R=22.69 and their combined effect – ∑Δ_RA=2.56. The component analysis revealed that the increase in the number of patients with BC was mainly due to the growth of the population (Δ_P=+3.7%), changes in its age structure (Δ_A=+10.3%) and changes associated with the risk of acquiring illness (Δ_R=+75.0%). The mortality rate in the region changed from 18.6 (2009) to 10.9 (2018) and tended to decrease.

Conclusion: The role of the influence of demographic factors and the risk of acquiring illness on the formation of the number of patients and the incidence of BC was evaluated. In this region, these indicators were the highest. The implementation of the results of this study is recommended in management of anticancer activities for BC.