Forecasting Lice Infestation Trends in Iran: Impact of COVID-19 and Future Projections

Reza Jafarzadeh  Esfehani; Mohammad Hassan  Aelami

doi:10.18502/jimc.v9i3.21839

Reza Jafarzadeh Esfehani Blood Borne Infections Research Center, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Razavi Khorasan Branch, Mashhad, Iran
Mohammad Hassan Aelami Infection Control & Hand Hygiene Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/jimc.v9i3.21839

Keywords: Lice infestations, Parasitic diseases, SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Background: Lice infestation is a global public health issue, particularly among children, with the COVID-19 pandemic potentially altering its trends. This study assessed the pandemic’s impact on lice-related search activity in Iran and forecasted future trends using Google Trends data.

Methods: While Google Trends has been used for other health conditions, this is the first study to apply this methodology to lice-related searches in Iran, capturing unique regional pandemic impacts.

Results: Analyzing Persian search terms (2014–2024), a time-series analysis compared unadjusted and seasonally adjusted models. The seasonally adjusted model outperformed the unadjusted one, with higher stationary R-squared (0.846 vs. 0.669), lower MAPE (1.624 vs. 9.189), and reduced BIC (0.032 vs. 3.676). It predicted a 7.7% increase in lice-related searches from November 2024 to November 2026.

Conclusion: These findings support using digital data for lice surveillance and underscore the need for context-specific public health strategies.