Forecast Future Production and Estimation of Future Costs of Municipal Solid Waste Collection and Transportation System in Yazd Using WAGS Software

Abstract

Introduction: About 50 to 70 percent of the waste management total cost is spent on collection operations, so any little progress in reducing collection costs could significantly reduce total costs. This study aimed to analyze the collection and transportation of municipal solid waste cost in Yazd in the next 15 years.

Materials and Methods: The study location (five areas) was different urban areas of Yazd city.  To analyze the collection and transportation of normal waste cost in Yazd, WAGS software was used. To obtain demographic information, the Statistical Center of Iran data, information about the location of the area, equipment, costs, and taxes related to waste were obtained in cooperation with Yazd Municipality, Recycling Organization, Labor, and Social Affairs Office and field surveys. Apart from WAGS, the ARIMA time series method (1, 1, 0) was also used with SPSS 24.

Results: The highest costs of waste collection belonged to the human resources sector, and personnel costs were 75.24%, machinery supply capital was 13.85%, repair costs were 6.15%, fuel costs were 4.59%, and the costs of the other parts of the total cost of the waste collection were 0.14%.

Conclusion: The total collection and transfer of waste costs were estimated at 10414000 USD to collect and transfer municipal solid waste in Yazd in the next 15 years. Waste generation projection by time series method with the ARIMA model (1, 1, 0) showed more accurate results than waste generation projection with WAGS.