Spatial Analysis and Geographic Factors Associated with Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Southern Iran

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to determine the hotspot areas for Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Fasa city and assess the relations between the geographical factors with CL incidence using spatial analysis.

Materials and Methods: This ecological study was conducted in Fasa city, data of the CL disease such as the total number of CL cases and the population at risk from 2009 to 2014. Weather conditions' data including the means of temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunny days, rainy days, and evaporation were collected from the weather forecast centers in Fars province. The disease cases' information such as the number of disease cases was collected from all healthcare centers located in Fasa City. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Global Moran’s Index (GMI) were used to assess the associations of the various environmental variables with CL incidence and to map clustering of CL cases across the region.

Results: The cumulative incidence of CL was 16 per 10,000 populations during a six-year period. The results showed the southern area of Fasa as a hotspot area which is considered as hyperendemic foci for CL. OLS revealed a high incidence of CL in areas with maximum temperature, mean of temperature, mean of evaporation, sunny days and wind velocity.

Conclusion: A spatial disease pattern was found in the present study. Hence, substantial consideration to environmental data leads to not only suitable protection against CL but also designing a suitable measure for the prevention and control of the disease.