Trend and Geographical Distribution of Diabetes Mellitus Mortality Attributed to Air Pollution in Iran from 1990 To 2021

Saeed  Hosseini; Moslem Taheri  Soodejani; Fateme Shakeri  Shamsi; Narjes  Hazar

doi:10.18502/jehsd.v11i2.21960

Saeed Hosseini Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
Moslem Taheri Soodejani Clinical Research Development Center, Shahid Sadoughi Hospital, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
Fateme Shakeri Shamsi Diabetes Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
Narjes Hazar Diabetes Research Center, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Institute, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/jehsd.v11i2.21960

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, Environmental Pollution, Mortality, Chronic Disease, Public Health, Iran.

Abstract

Introduction: The escalating incidence and mortality rates of diabetes, coupled with the growing threat of air pollution, pose a substantial threat to public health in Iran. This study seeks to examine the geographical distribution and temporal trends of diabetes-related deaths specifically linked to air pollution across the country.

Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we employed Joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant shifts in the mortality trends of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) linked to air pollution. Furthermore, spatial distribution patterns for the year 2021 were mapped and analyzed using ArcMap GIS v.10.

Results: The mortality rate of T2DM attributable to air pollution in Iran exhibited an upward trend between 1990 and 2019, after which a subsequent decline was observed from 2019 to 2021. The highest annual percentage change in females occurred between 2011 and 2016 (5.134, 95% UI: 4.704–5.563), whereas in males, it occurred between 2012 and 2015 (6.275, 95% UI: 4.867–6.934). The highest average annual percentage change in females was observed in Gilan (4.427, 95% UI: 4.305–4.535), and in males, it was observed in Bushehr (4.125, 95% UI: 3.873–4.320). Geographical analysis revealed that in 2021, Tehran and Khuzestan had the highest mortality rates, whereas the lowest rates were recorded in Zanjan, Kohgiluyeh, and Boyer-Ahmad for females and Kohgiluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad, and Hamadan for males.

Conclusion: These findings highlight the continued need for stronger environmental control measures, especially in high-risk areas, to further reduce the burden of air pollution-related diabetes mortality in Iran.