SIR Model for Estimations of the Coronavirus Epidemic Dynamics in Iran

Abstract

Background: The Coronavirus 2019-nCOV (COVID-19) epidemic by SARS-CoV-2 is spreading worldwide, and by March 1, 2020, 67 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Many studies are being conducted at home and abroad to predict the outbreak of the disease so that they can make the necessary medical and health decisions in a timely manner. 

Methods: we used the SIR model to identify parameters to calculate epidemic features and some estimates of the new coronavirus. Data on the transmission of the novel coronavirus were extracted from the GitHub source in the covid19.analytics software package.

Results: According to our model estimates, the rate of infection β = 1 and the rate of removal γ = 0.667 and index R0 = 1.497 were obtained. Because the value of R0 is more than one, it is still an epidemic disease. Given that tfinal~132 days was estimated, we can expect the transmission of this epidemic to stop in Iran after July 3, 2020, provided that existing quarantine measures and patient isolation rates continue as usual. In comparison with the global SIR model, we reached the peak of the infection earlierthan the global model, but in improved and susceptible cases, we performed better than the global model. The graph of recovered and susceptible cases in Iran earlier than the global model cut off themselves.

Conclusion: Forecasts are set to be a useful guide for deciding whether to transfer COVID-19. According to the predictions and estimates made, more attention should be paid to control measures