Factors Associated with The Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease in The Mashad: A Cohort Study

Fatemeh Sadabadi; Mohsen Moohebati; Alireza Heidari-Bakavoli; Sousan Darroudi; Shahin Nazarpour; Mohammad Sadegh Khorrami Mohebbseraj; Zahra Asadi; Habibollah Esmaeily; Hamideh Ghazizadeh; Elham Barati; Najmeh Malekzadeh Gonabadi; Sara Samadi; Maryam Tayefi; Zahra  Izadi mood; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Sahar  Heidari- Bakavoli; Tara Hoori; Ramin Bahramizadeh Sajjadi; Gordon A. Ferns; Majid  Ghayour-Mobarhan; Hamid Heidarian Miri

doi:10.18502/jbe.v8i2.10414

Fatemeh Sadabadi Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Mohsen Moohebati Cardiovascular Research Center, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Alireza Heidari-Bakavoli Cardiovascular Research Center, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Sousan Darroudi Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Shahin Nazarpour Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Mohammad Sadegh Khorrami Mohebbseraj Department of Medical Genetics, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Zahra Asadi Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Habibollah Esmaeily Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Hamideh Ghazizadeh Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Elham Barati Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Najmeh Malekzadeh Gonabadi Department of Genetic, School of Sciences, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran.
Sara Samadi Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Maryam Tayefi Clinical Research Unit, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Zahra Izadi mood Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
Sahar Heidari- Bakavoli Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Tara Hoori Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Ramin Bahramizadeh Sajjadi Legal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization, Mashhad, Iran.
Gordon A. Ferns Department of Medical Education, Brighton & Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK.
Majid Ghayour-Mobarhan Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Hamid Heidarian Miri Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Health, Management & Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/jbe.v8i2.10414

Keywords: MASHAD; Cohort study; Incidence; Coronary disease; Multiple analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, and specially in Iran. An accurate assessment of the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) is very important for public health. In current study we aimed to investigate the incidence of CHD and importance of several classical modifiable and un-modifiable risk factors for CHD among an urban population in eastern Iran after 6 years follow-up.

Methods: The population of MASHAD cohort study were followed up for 6 years, every 3 years initially by phone and those who reported symptoms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were asked to attend for a cardiac examination. An estimate of the incidence of CHD was determined with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association of several baseline characteristics with the incidence of a CHD event. Evaluation of goodness-of-fit was undertaken using ROC analysis. CHD cases were divided into four different categories: stable angina, unstable angina pectoris, myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death.

Results: In the six years of follow-up of the Mashhad study participants, the incidence density of CHD events in men and women in 1000 person-year with 95% confidence intervals were 19.20 (8.10-30.30) and 11.60 (7.30-15.90), respectively. The areas under ROC curve (AUC), based on multiple logistic regression model of CHD outcome, was determined to be 0.783.

Conclusion: Our findings indicated that the incidence rate of coronary heart diseases in MASHAD cohort study increases with age, and our final model was able to predict approximately 78% of CHD events in this Iranian population.