Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability in Iran; Historical Trend and Future Projections

Authors

  • Masoumeh Rahmatinia Air Quality and Climate Change Research Center, Research Institute for Health Sciences and Environment, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • Mostafa Hadei Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • Shaghayegh Zafar Department of Pathobiology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • Parnia Hatami Moghadam Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18502/chj.v1i1.22640

Keywords:

Climate Change Vulnerability; Socio-Economic Vulnerability; Global Vulnerability Index; Climate Change; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change susceptibility is linked to a number of socioeconomic variables or features, such as the economy, infrastructure, health, education, governance, women’s status, demographics, and culture. The GDL Data Lab Vulnerability Index (GVI) was created to compare nations and regions across specific socioeconomic characteristics in order to evaluate the state of societies on these dimensions. The GVI is based on an additive formula that condenses the key elements of seven main socioeconomic vulnerability dimensions into a single number. The aim of this study was to assess Iran’s socioeconomic vulnerability index to climate change using the GVI from 2000 to 2020, and to project it until 2100 along five socioeconomic pathways (SSP1 to SSP5).

Methods: GVI data for Iran for the period 2000 to 2020, as well as future projections of this index under five different socioeconomic development scenarios (SSP1 to SSP5) for the period 2020 to 2100, were extracted from the Global Data Lab (GDL) database and analyzed using GraphPad Prism software.

Results: The results of the study showed that the GVI index declined from 54 to 38 over the past two decades, reflecting progress in education, health, and infrastructure. Future projections also suggest that vulnerability will continue to decline, with the SSP5 scenario showing the largest decrease from 37.2 to 18.7, and the SSP3 scenario showing the smallest decline from 40.5 to 36.8 reflecting a wide range of socioeconomic outcomes.

Conclusion: The findings highlight the need for policies that support equitable and sustainable growth, particularly those aligned with the SSP1 model.

Published

2026-09-12

Issue

Volume (1) issue (1)

Section

Articles