Key Factors Shaping Emerging Patterns of Adolescents’ Career Aspirations toward the 2050 Horizon

Marzieh  Jalali; Fatemeh  Samiee; Parisa  Nilforooshan; Ali  Zakery

doi:10.18502/qjcr.v24i95.20828

Marzieh Jalali PhD Candidate in Counseling, Faculty of Education and Psychology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
Fatemeh Samiee PhD in Counseling, Associate Professor, Department of Counseling, Faculty of Education and Psychology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Parisa Nilforooshan PhD in Counseling Associate Professor, Department of Counseling, Faculty of Education and Psychology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
Ali Zakery PhD in Strategic Foresight, Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering and Futures Studies, Faculty of Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/qjcr.v24i95.20828

Keywords: Career aspirations; Adolescents; Experts; Scoping review; PESTEL model

Abstract

Aim: Given the lack of future-oriented and multi-level frameworks for explaining adolescents’ career aspirations under the uncertain conditions of the future of work, this study aimed to identify key influencing factors and emerging patterns shaping these aspirations toward the 2050 horizon. This was achieved by analyzing the interaction of political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and psychological factors within the extended PESTEL-P model. ▌Methods: This study employed an exploratory mixed-methods design, integrating expert interviews with a scoping review of the scientific literature. In the qualitative phase, 14 experts from relevant fields were purposively selected and interviewed using semi-structured protocols. In the scoping review phase, 16 peer-reviewed articles indexed in the Scopus database (2000–2024) were analyzed based on predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. ▌Findings: Five emerging patterns were identified: (1) a semantic shift in career aspirations from stable, status-oriented goals toward immediate and symbolic success; (2) increasing economic pressures accompanied by fragmentation of career identity coherence; (3) the growing influence of technology, digital media, and virtual identities; (4) the declining authority of family and educational institutions alongside the rise of media-based role modeling; and (5) a widening gap between formal policymaking and generational realities, resulting in unstable and short-term career choices. ▌Conclusion: Adolescents’ career aspirations are increasingly shifting from traditional, meaning-oriented goals toward technology-driven, media-influenced, and short-term pathways. These findings underscore the need to critically rethink educational policies, skill-development programs, and career counseling practices in order to better support adaptive and future-oriented career design.