Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran

Abstract

Background: Predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) helps the management of high-risk individuals by the health system. We sought to determine the 10-year risk of CVDs in the Shahrekord Cohort Study (SCS).

Methods: In this cross-sectional study based on the SCS in the southwest of Iran, the demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data of 5152 persons recruited in the SCS by census method from 2016 to 2017 were used. R software was utilized to calculate the 10-year risk of CVDs according to the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) chart, the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) model, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model.

Results: The mean age of the participants was 49.49±9.40 years, and 50.3% of them were female. According to the WHO/ ISH chart, 94.1% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 4.1% in the moderate-risk class, and 0.4% in the high-risk class. Based on the FRS model, 72.2% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 18% in the middle-risk class, and 9.8% in the high-risk class. On the basis of the SCORE model for low-risk areas, 55.3% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 39.6% in the moderate-risk class, and 5.1% in the high-risk class. The agreement concerning risk estimation between the models was approximately 70%.

Conclusion: The risk estimated in this study was higher than that in other similar studies. For monitoring risk trends over time, it is essential to nativize a valid risk function, including ethnicity and geographical characteristics, for the Iranian population.