Prioritizing Factors Influencing Failure in the Crisis Management System of a Process Industry Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to identify and prioritize factors leading to the failure of crisis management systems in a process industry. An integrated approach combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed.

Material and Methods: Initially, FTA was used to systematically identify factors contributing to the failure, resulting in a hierarchical model with one top event, four main intermediate events, 16 sub-intermediate events, and 42 basic events. Subsequently, the AHP method was applied to prioritize these identified factors based on pairwise comparisons conducted by a panel of 11 industry and academic experts.

Results: The AHP results revealed that among the main phases of crisis management, failure in the prevention phase held the highest priority (weight = 0.380), followed by failure in the preparedness phase (0.280), response phase (0.245), and recovery phase (0.095). Key basic events identified included knowledge-skill gaps in leadership, inadequate periodic inspection programs, malfunctioning warning equipment, and untimely budget allocation.

Conclusion: The study findings confirm that prevention is the most pivotal phase in crisis management within process industries. By utilizing the integrated FTA-AHP framework, managers can systematically prioritize failure factors and align corrective actions with the most influential determinants, thereby enabling targeted resource allocation and strategic reinforcement of the crisis management system