https://publish.kne-publishing.com/index.php/JCHR/issue/feed 2026-01-06T12:27:02+00:00 Admin m.davvari@knowledgee.com Open Journal Systems <p>The Journal of Community Health Research is a peer review open access&nbsp; journal which publishes original papers related to all areas of basic and biomedical sciences with a special approach to disease prevention &amp; community health promotion. The journal welcomes all researchers working in the different fields of health.</p> <p><strong data-stringify-type="bold">All the manuscripts should be submitted through the Journal Primary Website at <a href="https://jhr.ssu.ac.ir/form_send_article.php?&amp;slct_pg_id=22&amp;sid=1&amp;slc_lang=en">https://jhr.ssu.ac.ir/form_send_article.php?&amp;slct_pg_id=22&amp;sid=1&amp;slc_lang=en</a></strong></p> https://publish.kne-publishing.com/index.php/JCHR/article/view/20721 2026-01-06T12:27:02+00:00 Masoumeh Miri none@none.com Mohammadhasan Lotfi none@none.com Hosein Falahzadeh none@none.com Farzan Madadizadeh none@none.com

<p><strong>Background: </strong>The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical need for advanced modeling approaches to elucidate transmission dynamics and inform public health strategy. This study employed a Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (TSIR) model to quantitatively analyze the pandemic trajectory in Iran and estimate the time-varying basic reproduction number (R₀) from February 2020 to December 2023.</p> <p><strong>Methods: </strong>In an analytical cross-sectional study, comprehensive national COVID-19 data were obtained from the Iranian Ministry of Health and validated international repositories. The TSIR framework was implemented using R software (v4.0.0) to estimate transmission parameters (β, γ) and reconstruct epidemic dynamics. Vaccination impact was assessed through comparative analysis of compartmental populations pre- and post-vaccination deployment.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>Analysis of 1,373 surveillance days revealed 7,625,160 confirmed cases with 146,741 fatalities (CFR: 2%). The TSIR model demonstrated superior tracking of seven distinct epidemic waves, with R₀ estimates declining to 0.2 during 2022-2023. Statistical analysis confirmed significant compartmental shifts post-vaccination (p&lt;0.001), indicating substantial intervention impact. Moreover, model validation showed robust performance across multiple epidemic phases.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The TSIR model provides a validated framework for epidemic monitoring and evaluation of public health interventions in Iran. The sub-critical R₀ values observed during the study's conclusion reflect successful containment through combined vaccination and control measures. Therefore, integration of time-series epidemiological modeling into national surveillance systems is recommended for enhanced preparedness against future infectious disease threats.</p>

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