Time-Series analysis of PM10 and PM2.5 pollutants and estimation of its health effects in Khorramabad city during a period of 5 years

Faramarz  Azimi; Mansour  Ghaderpoori; Fariba  Hafezi

doi:10.18502/japh.v10i2.19078

Faramarz Azimi Environmental Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
Mansour Ghaderpoori Environmental Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
Fariba Hafezi Student Research Committee, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/japh.v10i2.19078

Keywords: Temporal trends; Health effects; AirQ model; Khorramabad; Particulate matter

Abstract

Introduction: Air pollution, particularly Particulate Matter (PM), poses a significant global health threat due to its deep penetration into the respiratory system, leading to or exacerbating cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities and mortalities, increased hospital admissions, and premature death. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Khorramabad city and to quantify their associated health impacts over a five-year period (2013-2017).

Materials and methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, hourly concentration data for PM10 and PM2.5 from 2013-2017 were obtained from the Khorramabad Environmental Protection Agency. Data underwent rigorous validation based on World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and Z-score method in SPSS to ensure reliability and remove outliers. Time-series analysis and visualization of pollutant variations performed using R software and the Openair package. Health effect quantification, including estimations of attributable mortality and morbidity, conducted using the AirQ 2.2.3 model, integrating air quality data with epidemiological parameters such as Relative Risk (RR) and Baseline Incidence (BI).

Results: The study revealed an overall decreasing trend in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations from 2013 to 2016, with a notable increase in PM₁₀ concentration observed in 2017. The annual average concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 for the entire study period were estimated at approximately 65 µg/m³ and 35 µg/m³, respectively, significantly exceeding WHO air quality guidelines. Quantification of health effects indicated a total of 1634 attributable deaths due to PM10 exposure over the five years, comprising 530 cardiovascular deaths and 103 respiratory deaths. For PM2.5, the total attributable deaths were estimated at 933 individuals. The highest health burden for PM₁₀related to total respiratory visits (1341 cases) and cardiovascular deaths (530 cases). Both pollutants exhibited similar diurnal and weekly patterns, with peaks during morning and evening rush hours and mid-week days, and higher concentrations during warm seasons, influenced by dust storms and agricultural burning.

Conclusion: The study reveals consistently high levels of PM10 and PM2.5 in Khorramabad, especially during warmer seasons, leading to a substantial public health burden. These findings emphasize the critical need for effective interventions and long-term strategies to control air pollution and safeguard community health.