Predicting the Distribution of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) in Golestan Province of Iran using an Ecological Niche Model

Ehsan Allah  Kalteh; Golshirin  Yatimparvar; Aioub  Sofizadeh; Ebrahim  Sahneh

doi:10.18502/jad.v19i2.20191

Ehsan Allah Kalteh Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
Golshirin Yatimparvar Health Management and Social Development Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
Aioub Sofizadeh Infectious Diseases Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
Ebrahim Sahneh Gonbad-e Kavoos Health Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18502/jad.v19i2.20191

Keywords: House mosquito; Culex pipiens; Ecological niche modeling; Maximum entropy

Abstract

Background: Culex pipiens is one of the most important vectors of mosquito-borne pathogens in Iran. This study aimed to predict the distribution of this species in Golestan Province, Iran and to determine the factors affecting its distribution.

Methods: Mosquito larvae were collected by using the dipping method from 56 locations across all 14 counties of the province, between April and October 2016. Species were identified morphologically, and the spatial distribution of Cx. pipiens was modeled using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt software Ver. 3.3.3) model.

Results: The results of our study show that areas located in the central part of Golestan Province are the most environmentally suitable habitat for Cx. pipiens. Jackknife test of variable importance showed that the following factors had the greatest influence on the distribution of Cx. pipiens: proximity to human settlements, precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), precipitation of wettest quarter (mm), precipitation of wettest month (mm), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (^oC).

Conclusion: This study concludes that the MaxEnt model is a very suitable model for studying the ecology of Cx. pipiens and precipitation, and temperature play a major role in the distribution of this species.